The Real Campaign Begins

Now that the conventions are over, we can get a better sense of what each campaign is trying to do. From the press reports I've read, it appears as though the basic McCain strategy was not decided on until the last minute. A week before he named Palin as his running mate, he was hoping to be able to pick Joe Lieberman. The right wing would not have been happy about Lieberman but McCain's initial thinking apparently was that conseratives would have no other place to go. My understandig is that he was finally convinved that a Lieberman pick would literally split the party in two and that there was no chance of winning if he lost his party's base. Other possible picks like Romney would have been more acceptable to the base but would not have injected much excitement. Therefore he turned to Palin as someone conservatives like Rush Limbaugh had been pushing all summer albeit below the radar screen of most press coverage. A lot of the press coverage over the weekend argues that the pick helps build McCain's image as an indpendent maverick, but I think it could also be argued that it supports Obama's claim of "more of the same" in that McCain, like Bush, appears to be willing top pander to conservative fundamentalists and to make major appointments on largely political criteria. Republicans will want to campaign on McCain's biography and the heroism he showed as a prisnor of war, aswell as his foreign policy credentials, while attackingObama for his lack of experience and for not being tough enough on defense issues. The Democrats, on the other hand, will want to focus as much attention as possible on the economy and make the election as much as possible as a contest between Republicans and Democrats. McCain, of course, is trying to distance himself from the Bush administration and its record of the last 8 years and has tried to co-opt Obama on the change issue but I think he will have a harder time than Obama he selling himself as a change agent since he has been a member of the party that has been in power these past 8 years. By most indicators, this should be a Democratic year. The best hope of the Republicans will be try to raise enough doubt about Obama that voters will view McCain as their only real option.